posted
That is ridiculously confusing. Yeah, I know how to subtract three. But why post everything in EST? Posts: 32919 | Registered: Mar 2003
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posted
Some polls close that early? Damn. Somehow I have a feeling that with poll lines as long as they could be, those polls won't actually close until far later, and the SecState of a lot of those states are going to give the polls an extra hour, especially in places that close at 6 and 7.
Sucks that Alaska doesn't end until midnight. I'm going to be up until 3am waiting to find out if the Democrats got 60 or not (unless a miracle happens in Georgia, Kentucky and Mississippi).
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
So we should, realistically, know the outcome of this by around 9:00 EST, provided Colorado and NM aren't too close.
[edit] Now that I think about it, even earlier. Iowa closes at 9, and is looking like a lock; VA closes at 8. Unless Obama loses NH or Pennsylvania, then Obama wins with Kerry + IA + VA.
posted
I think it's likely that we'll know the outcome by 9pm. Especially if Obama wins Ohio and/or Florida, assuming those states are called by 9pm and it isn't another night that goes past midnight before they are called, but I think at that point, Obama will have won before Florida is even called, making it a moot point.
Like James said, Kerry states gets him 252. Virginia and Iowa would barely put him over the top before anything outside the central time zone is even counted.
Even without Virginia, he'd win with NM and CO instead.
This thing going past 9 or 9:30 will depend on things swinging for McCain. He either needs to hold Virginia, or steal Pennsylvania, and hold Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Ohio. Anyone of those things goes wrong and it's over before McCain's bedtime.
Lots of other questions will go long into the night.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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posted
Only depends on how much you believe the polls. Him losing only sounds crazy (or funny in your case) if you think all the polls are right and he has like 370 votes in the bag. The early voting data seems to back up the polls pretty heavily.
Personally I DO believe most of the polls, within a few points. A lot of them are using some pretty screwy weighting, and a lot of it will depend on some highly vaunted turnout numbers, so we'll see.
This is all about hype fulfillment.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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There has been a lot of early voting. Exit polls also show that in battle ground states, it has been heavily slanted to Obama, likely due to voter enthusiasm. My question is this: When do the early votes get counted?
Is it right after the polls close? I wonder this, because if they put off counting the early votes, the results could seem prematurely pro-McCain because there will be a larger influx of Republican voting on Election day itself. This comes because so many of the democrats have already voted. If they don't count the votes right away, the media could easily create some election night drama by artificially showing the race as being close, or in McCain's favor.
I'm not wondering this because I want the story to be an Obama blowout from the get-go. I ask this because I hope that the votes will be counted promptly, accurately, and the tallies made public so that we can see the results of this election faster and without as much drama. Regardless of it favors McCain or Obama. (Though I also know the polls, and McCain would win by the skin of his teeth if he won, so there probably would be some real suspense as the votes are counted if he were to win.)
Edit: Important clarification. Posts: 1831 | Registered: Jan 2003
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posted
Maybe everyone should just vote by mail, and then the results can be released on Wednesday, at noon Pacific time. That way, the networks can't announce a winner until Hawaiians are done voting.
Posts: 3546 | Registered: Jul 2002
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posted
As if Hawaii's vote has ever really been in doubt.
Vadon -
I'm almost positive that they start counting all the votes cast, both before and during the election, as soon as the polls close. With electronic voting in so many places it's really just a matter of collecting the information that's been accumulating for a week and isn't an extra burden. I don't think you'll see the kind of lopsided results you're worried about. Precincts report their whole results, they don't report some stuff and then get to early voting later. You'll see it trickle in, but it'll be full precinct results.
Posts: 21898 | Registered: Nov 2004
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Yeah, and it would be so hard to also include local time zones, or the ability to convert all times to another zone.
