BAGHDAD, Iraq, Feb. 13 - The razor-thin margin apparently captured by the Shiite alliance here in election results announced Sunday seems almost certain to enshrine a weak government that will be unable to push through sweeping changes, like granting Islam a central role in the new Iraqi state.
Good.
quote: The results of the balloting appeared to leave Kurdish leaders, whose party captured more than a quarter of the assembly seats, in a particularly strong position to shape the next government. The Kurds are America's closest allies in Iraq, and most of their leaders are of a strong secular bent.
Good.
quote: As the final vote totals were being announced Sunday, Shiite leaders appeared to be scaling back their expectations, and preparing to reach out to parties in the opposition to help them form a new government.
"We have to compromise," said Adnan Ali, a senior leader in the Dawa party, one of the largest in the Shiite coalition, called the United Iraqi Alliance. "Even though we have a majority, we will need other groups to form a government."
The vote tally, which appeared to leave the Shiite alliance with about 140 of the national assembly's 275 seats, fell short of what Shiite leaders had been expecting, and seemed to blunt some of the triumphant talk that could already be heard in some corners. The final results seemed to ease fears among Iraq's Sunni, Kurd and Christian minorities that the leadership of the Shiite majority might feel free to ignore minority concerns, and possibly fall under the sway of powerful clerics, some of whom advocate the establishment of a strict Islamic state.
As a result, some Iraqi leaders predicted Sunday that the Shiite alliance would try to form a "national unity government," containing Kurdish and Sunni leaders, as well as secular Shiites, possibly including the current prime minister, Ayad Allawi. Such a leadership would all but ensure that no decisions would be taken without a broad national consensus.
Excellent.
quote: One senior Iraqi official, a non-Shiite who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the slim majority won by the Shiite alliance signaled even greater obstacles for the Shiite parties in the future. If the Sunni Arabs, who largely boycotted the election, decide to take part in the future, they would almost certainly dilute the Shiite alliance's already thin margin.
"This is the height of the Shiite vote," the Iraqi official said. "The next election assumes Sunni participation, and you will see an entirely different dynamic then."
I think the article is great news, the best possible outcome for Iraq, because it signals to the Sunnis, to everyone, that their vote matters and encourages them to engage in the democracy.
On the other hand, this may signal to others that the only way to achieve their ends will be through terror.
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posted
I think it's good news too. I was just watching the PBS News Hour, and they described the Kurds as "kingmakers," who will probably demand the presidency (apparently a largely ceremonial post) as a condition of a coalition with the Shi'ia. This is great because we have good relations with the Kurds, overall.
It also appears to rule out full-blown sharia or Islamic religious law.
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(I'm the kind of person who doesn't cheer for the touchdown until I scan the field for little yellow flags)
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posted
He must be sick. I'm sure he meant to put something totally outrageous and offensive in that post. It must have slipped his mind.
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quote: "This is the height of the Shiite vote," the Iraqi official said. "The next election assumes Sunni participation, and you will see an entirely different dynamic then."
A talking head on the News Hour said essentially the same thing, that when (if) Sunnis vote at the end of the year, the Shi'ia majority will shrink even more.
So I guess the fears of a Shi'ia Iranian-style theocracy were misplaced, which is s relief. That would have been a scarce improvement over Saddam from the American POV.
quote:Iraq Shiite leaders demand Islam be the source of law NAJAF, IRAQ, February 06 (AFP) Iraq`s Shiite leader Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and another top cleric staked out a radical demand that Islam be the sole source of legislation in the country`s new constitution.
We can only hope that Kurds and other secularists act as brake on the Islamic fundamentalists.
Q&A on the Sistani website, covering everything from anal intercourse (OK) to wine-drinking (verboten!): Sistani.com
posted
Morbo, notice that the date on your link is February the sixth. Your link is basically in line with what the Times piece ia saying, that the election results are going to severely mute the chance that hardliners like Sistani will get their way politically.
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posted
Actually, if the Kurds win the presidency it could be bad news--not that the Kurds are bad people, but that many non-Kurds think they are. A Kurdish president might well be the target of assassination attempts, and a successful one would be a disaster, under the circumstances.
(Addit: A successful assassination--not a successful president.)
You may now return to your regular optimism. (I'm happy too.)
posted
I like the fact that the Shiites can't do anything without the Kurds agreement basically. They need to put together a consensus from all the groups. I think if the Sunnis had voted in great numbers it would have been even better.
Still, all good signs from Iraq. Only 50,000 Insurgents and a constitutional writing process to go!
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