I was with some friends - the guys practically cried when this happened - after whooping and jumping up and down . . . I thought it was very polite that Ichiro went to the daughter of the past holder of the record to shake her hand and all that good stuff . . .
Posts: 5609 | Registered: Jan 2003
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I watched him, it was awesome. A shame with the strikeout at his last at bat though. Still, an incredible accomplishment which shows that there is still room for innovative play and dedication in a sport that is too often dominated by overpaid prima donnas and 'roid-addled, flash-in-the-pan home run gorrilas.
Posts: 1769 | Registered: Feb 2000
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I'm really upset Ichiro broke that record. Ichiro basically broke the record by being a useless single's hitter. He has something like 35 extra base hits this year, and batted something like 375-380. Hitting .375-.380 is pretty damn good... but his on base percentage is really nothing spectacular. Its .415 right now. Thats good, in fact, its second best in the american leauge... but the fact he doesn't lead the league in on base percentage should tell you something. He's got 260 hits! Anyrate... getting beyond that, Ichiro is the first person in major league history, besides himself, to have 240 or more hits and a season, and not have 65 of them be for extra bases. Not only does he not have 65 extra base hits... he doesn't have 60... or 50... or even 40. The man has37 extra base hits, for a wishy-washy .456 slugging percentage. .456 slugging percentage isn't what you want from a corner outfielder... much less a corner outfielder who has 260 hits. The fact he broke the single season record for hits is impressive, but his stats are that of a mediocre outfielder. THe record he broke was owned by one of the all time great players. So, now, chasing the hits record in the future, won't be as significant in my mind.
Sure, people say this stuff about a lot of records. But, there's no getting around the fact Ichiro is WAY over-rated, and has been since his first day in the league. Now, he'll be even MORE over-rated.
OPS is a rough and ready way of measuring a baseball players offensive value to his team. Ichiro just broke the hits record... want to guess where he is in the major leagues for OPS?
38th. Not even anywhere NEAR the top. He's tied for 33rd in the majors in runs scored. Again, no where NEAR the top, despite having 80 more hits then anyone else.
Sure, the guy knows how to reach first base... but you can stick an average major league right fielder in his spot in the lineup, and your team will score just as many runs.
Sorry, I'm done ranting. Its impressive teh guy broke an 80 year old record... but he's the worst player in MLB history to have 240 hits, forget owning the record for hits in a season.
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And Sisler did his in 154 games, to Ichiro's 160.
And in 38 fewer at-bats. Had Sisler gotten 32 more at-bats (8 extra games x 4 at-bats/gm avg.), he would've had 13 more hits.
Give Ichiro the asterisk. And keep Sisler in the record books for not only having the most hits in 154 games, but for having an amazing all-around season that year.
Another Ichiro gripe--arguably the fastest player in the league, and he only had 35 stolen bases. What gives? No wonder Seattle scored the fewest runs in the AL. What good is a leadoff hitter who can't manufacture a run?
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Well, steals are only good if you have a success rate of 70% or better (in today's game... it varies slightly from year to year). If you get caught more then 30% of the time, you cost your team runs. Ichiro had a 75% success rate this year, on 36 steals, so he manufactured approximately a net of 2-3 runs. Stolen bases don't help ALL that much in general. Nor, for that matter, do sacrifice bunts. During the course of the season, sacrifice bunts cost runs. Its a very good way to score 1 run, but most teams bunt with a runner on first and no outs A runner on first and no outs, is worth approximately .4 runs per inning, while a runner on second with 1 out is worth approximately .3 runs per inning. Now, the DIFFERENCE is that a runner on second with 1 out is more likely to score then a runner on first with 0 out... but a runner on first with no out is more likely to lead to an inning of 2+ runs. Hence, bunting is good in the 8th-9th-extra innings, in a tie game or up by 1 run, but not so good in general.
Anyrate, the point of all of this, is that manufacturing runs is very difficult to do, and is more likely to happen through being smart on the bases and taking advantage of situations like outfielder bobbling the ball, then from stealing bases or bunting.
Posts: 4112 | Registered: May 2001
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paul, I've never seen anyone analyze baseball like you do. Did you actually come up with all those yourself or did you find them somewhere?
Posts: 853 | Registered: Feb 2004
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Most of it is taken from elsewhere. I don't have the time to crunch through 100 years of baseball stats I do try to interpret data, though, and while I havent come up with anything original, I think that I can put stuff into terms the casual baseball fan can understand.
While no one else has done this in 80 years, which does make it impressive, I'd still rather have about 20 major league outfielders on my team before I even thought about Ichiro, just looking at things offensively. Thats just this year. It depresses me that its someone like this who broke the hits record. Of course, to get this many hits, nowadays, you HAVE to be mediocre. If you're better then ichiro, people actually pitch carefully to you, because you can do actual offensive damage. Ichiro can't, really, so people just throw him strikes, and he hits little ground balls to the short-stop and beats them out. Yes, he gets on base... but it still requires two more hits to score him, most times.
Posts: 4112 | Registered: May 2001
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Paul, the sacbunts logic ignores situation. A pitcher is more useful laying down asacbunt and moving runners over than striking out or popping up or grounding into a double play. The same thing to a lesser degree for bad hitters.
Furthermore, it is unreasonble to judge Ichiro based on his runs scored and OPS. It doesn't matter how many times you get on base, if the people behind you don't drive you in there's nothing you can do. Furthermore, he can't get many rbis if there's no one onbase to knock in.
Posts: 3446 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Newfoundlogic- Sure, the bunting thing is to some degree situational. Thats why you see pitchers bunt in the NL, and fewer bunts in the american league, where just about every hitter is more valuable swinging away, if you want to score more then one run.
As far as Ichiro, its not just this year... its his career. He's played on some good teams, but he's never been better then the 20th best outfielder in MLB, including the year he won the MVP. Runs and RBI are largely a function of the lineup you are in, which is why I prefer to look at OPS as a rough and ready, easy to understand metric. By OPS, Ichiro is a slightly above acceptable MLB right fielder, with a career OPS of .828. In a corner outfielder, 800 is the cutoff line for a decent major league player. If Ichiro were a shortstop, he'd be one of the five best in MLB, but he's not, so I compare him to other outfielders. He's got almost no power, and he doesn't really walk all that much, so what you're left with are his singles, his occassional double, and the fact he steals 40 bases a year with a 75% success rate, in terms of offensive production. He makes up some value by not grounding into double plays, and ability to go 1st to 3rd on almost any hit.
Ichiro is way over-rated, and this record will boost his perceived value even more. But his actual value is slightly higher then the average MLB right fielder.
Posts: 4112 | Registered: May 2001
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He's a leadoff man, not the cleanup man,that means his job to get on base a high percentage of times and let other people do their job. Is he as valuable as Barry Bonds who gets on and hits homers galore. No, but the Marlins wouldn't have won the World Series last year without Juan Pierre.
Posts: 3446 | Registered: Jul 2002
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ACtually, they probably would have. Rob Neyer did an analysis and figured that having a leadoff man like Jaun Pierre cost the Marlins 2 runs during the course of the world series.
Yes, Ichiro's job is to get on base and score runs. But, a good leadoff hitter does more then that. Why? Because position in lineup is functionally irrelevant when plotted vs runs scored. A leadoff hitter with an OPS of .828 is worth pretty much teh same as a cleanup hitter with an OPS of .828, as far as the team is concerned. The reason good hitters hit higher in the lineup then bad hitters, is mostly because if you hit 1-2-3 you get more plate appearances then 7-8-9, and so you have more chances to do damage.
Ichiro is a fine player, and among the best at what he does... but what he does isn't worth as much as what Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Edmonds, Beltre, Berkman, Rolen, Haffner, Mora, Guerrero, Thome, Ortiz, Abreu, Dunn, or another 20 players do. Which is my point... he's overrated. In general, leadoff hitters and speed guys are overrated. A high OBP is GREAT. But a high OBP with a decent SLG is better. And Ichiro has a god awful SLG for a corner outfielder.
Posts: 4112 | Registered: May 2001
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One of the underlying assumptions of Paul's arguments (with which I largely agree, having read up on SABR-metrics to a small degree), is that EVERYONE ought to be trying to get on base, period. The only clock in baseball is the collection of 27 outs you are given to start it. They are your most precious resource, and ought to be preserved. If no one on your side got out more than half the time, you'd have the best baseball team ever, by a long shot
So in this regard, I have to say that Ichiro is more valuable than Paul is willing to allow.
However, realistically, you can't get on base more than half the time, unless your initials are B.B. Therefore, in order to maximize return on your precious outs, one needs to be efficient. That's the "Slugging" side of things. Not quite as valuable as OBP, but pretty much second to it. After all, the further you can advance on a hit, the the more likely you are to score, and the more likely teammates on the bases will score. This is where Ichiro falls woefully short as an OF. His defense is pretty darn good, by accounts I've read, and that's one area that good analysis has yet to make any real conclusions on.
Sacrificing, in all but very specific circumstances, is a bad idea, statistically.
posted
Sure, his OBP is good, and from that standpoint, he's fine... but his OBP really hasn't been GREAT in any year of his career. This year, he's 8th in major league baseball, and everyone above him has a better slugging percentage, and you have to go down to number 12 to find a player with a lower slugging percentage then Ichiro... and he's a catcher, Jason Kendall. Then, you have to go ALL the way down to number 36 in the OBP department to find someone with a lower SLG. Johnny Estrada. Johnny who? Exactly. Ichiro is over-rated. He's maybe the 20th best outfielder in MLB. WHich is sorta what I've been saying, even though his OPS is 38th overall, or something, and most of the players ahead of him are outfielders. (Or first baseman). I do give him credit for his OBP... but its largely cancelled out by his SLG, and in every year other then this, it HAS been cancelled out by his lack of power.
He's a good speed guy. But that doesn't make him a top 20 player.
Posts: 4112 | Registered: May 2001
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I read somewhere that Ichiro's gotten a lot of infield hit singles, because of his speed... are there any stats keeping track of that sort of thing -- does he lead the league in those? -- anyway, if he gets more singles because of how fast he is, it's gonna make sense that he's not gonna be as much of a power hitter. There's exceptions like Barry Bonds and Mickey Mantle, but generally big power hitters don't tend to be so fast, and so they're not gonna get as many infield hits.
I don't think that statistics for the benefits of stolen bases are able to take into account the effects on the pitcher. Breaking the pitcher's concentration -- making him pitch worse because he's worrying about the baserunner -- is an effect that doesn't show up in the stolen base statistics.
Posts: 2911 | Registered: Aug 2001
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I think the point of SABR-metrics is that it does take the effects of any given stat on runs scored into account. I don't claim to understand the math, but my understanding is every player's hits, steals, sacrifices, RBIs, runs, extra bases, etc. are factored together to determine the effect that player has on total run production.
So if a stolen base or the threat of a stolen base causes the next hitter to face easier pitching, it sounds like it would show up in the metrics.
All this assumes the underlying analysis in SABR is accurate. I can't begin to judge.
posted
They used to say stuff like this about Tony Gwynn early in his career. If you take a look at his stats, they are quite similar. Gwynn was never a stolen base guy, but he walked a bit more, too. Gwynn constantly improved as a hitter, though, and hit more and more extra base hits the further he went in his career. I'd wager that Ichiro may improve on that stuff in the future.
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And keep Sisler in the record books for not only having the most hits in 154 games, but for having an amazing all-around season that year.![[Wink]](wink.gif)
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I do try to interpret data, though, and while I havent come up with anything original, I think that I can put stuff into terms the casual baseball fan can understand.
