The returning debate with steven reminded me of a fun example that shows the common misuse of statistical correlation to mean that one phenomena causes another.
Example: There was a study done that showed a perfect statistical correspondence/correllation between eating icecream on a beach and deaths from shark attacks.
This correlation matched both by day/season as well as hour by hour and throughout the whole study period maintained the perfect match. </sticks tongue in cheek> therefore, obviously, eating ice cream on the beach raises the probability that you will be attacked by a shark. </removes tongue from cheek>
It's just a warning for those who use statistics too flippantly. Just because numbers seem to match doesn't mean there's actually a connection, or at least a direct connection.
Just like this study ignores the fact that the shark attacks are really influenced by number of people at the beach, not number of people eating ice cream at the beach...
Feel free to post similar analogies and whatnot if anyone likes Posted by Stephan (Member # 7549) on :
Everyday there is at least one in the news.
Posted by scholar (Member # 9232) on :
The number of bars in a given city increases at a similar rate as the number of churches. Therefore, going to church leads to drinking.
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
TG: See I had always heard the example as "Those who eat icecream and get into boat accidents."
But shark attacks works just fine.
Posted by Nighthawk (Member # 4176) on :
quote:You may be interested to know that global warming, earthquakes, hurricanes, and other natural disasters are a direct effect of the shrinking numbers of Pirates since the 1800s. For your interest, I have included a graph of the approximate number of pirates versus the average global temperature over the last 200 years. As you can see, there is a statistically significant inverse relationship between pirates and global temperature.
(That should get the snowball rolling...)
Posted by Dan_raven (Member # 3383) on :
Like the study that compared syphillus rates in sailors vs those of nuns in a German nunnery? The result proved that Syphillus was spread by ocean water.
Posted by ClaudiaTherese (Member # 923) on :
Parents of toddlers tend to be late to their medical appointments. Therefore, lateness causes one to have toddlers.
Look at all the subsets you want -- you'll see that, clearly, the toddler-having group has more problems with lateness. There is data from all these different clinics, and over and over, the toddlers are associated with lateness.
Obviously, QED. Stay on time* and you'll never have a toddler.
----
*Not that kind of "on time," silly.
Posted by The Pixiest (Member # 1863) on :
Nighthawk: Y'arr, mock not mine faith, ye lubberly bilge rat.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
This would be funnier if piracy had actually decreased. I can't find any long term data, but piracy is a significant and growing problem. Reported pirate attacks tripled between 1993 and 2003.
Posted by The Pixiest (Member # 1863) on :
Y'arr, had they scurvy? They be not pirates without scurvy.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
I suspose if you define pirate as some one who says "Y'arr" and has scurvy rather than someone who commits robbery at sea then the trend could be entirely different.
Posted by mr_porteiro_head (Member # 4644) on :
quote:therefore, obviously, eating ice cream on the beach raises the probability that you will be attacked by a shark.
You have it backwards. When you're about to be eaten by a shark, you are compelled to eat ice cream on a beach.
Posted by Nighthawk (Member # 4176) on :
quote:Originally posted by The Rabbit: This would be funnier if piracy had actually decreased. I can't find any long term data, but piracy is a significant and growing problem. Reported pirate attacks tripled between 1993 and 2003.
Followers of the FSM keep coming out of the woodwork, taking to the high seas and try to save the planet. What's wrong with that?
*EDIT*: Arr... ye spellin'!
Posted by Enigmatic (Member # 7785) on :
quote:Originally posted by mr_porteiro_head:
quote:therefore, obviously, eating ice cream on the beach raises the probability that you will be attacked by a shark.
You have it backwards. When you're about to be eaten by a shark, you are compelled to eat ice cream on a beach.
Well, I know I am!
--Enigmatic
Posted by TheGrimace (Member # 9178) on :
mph, brilliant deduction! I think you must be right... I mean, anxiety leads to over-eating, particularly of ice cream, and I'd definately be anxious if I were about to be eaten by a shark... it all makes so much sense.
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
quote:I mean, anxiety leads to over-eating, particularly of ice cream.
Well there are those of us who eat less when we are under stress. Are you suggesting that stress eaters are more numerous than stress non-eaters or that the stress non-eaters just aren't tasty enough to be shark bate in the first place.
Posted by TheGrimace (Member # 9178) on :
well obviously the non-eaters are going to tend to be more stringy and less juicy (read appetizing), come now... =p
Posted by The Rabbit (Member # 671) on :
You know, it doesn't bother me one bit to think that I might be less appetizing.
Posted by King of Men (Member # 6684) on :
Can I just point out that there's no apostrophe in 'Yarr'?
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
A good example from from a college math class: the more people waiting for a subway, the sooner the train is likely to come. But bringing ten friends with you won't make the train come any sooner.
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
"Can I just point out that there's no apostrophe in 'Yarr'?"
Why bother? Pirates don't hafta respect other people's rules.
Incontrovertible proof of GlobalWarming : sometimes finding correlation is finding causation.
Posted by MightyCow (Member # 9253) on :
quote:Originally posted by Morbo: A good example from from a college math class: the more people waiting for a subway, the sooner the train is likely to come. But bringing ten friends with you won't make the train come any sooner.
What if they all have magnets in their pockets?
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
quote:Originally posted by ClaudiaTherese: Therefore, lateness causes one to have toddlers.
*gasp* It's true! Every single time I had a toddler was preceded (about two years earlier) by being late!
Posted by Nighthawk (Member # 4176) on :
"Honey, we're late to pick up our son at school. What ever are we going to do now? Um... why are you looking at me like that? Wait... not now! Stop! Stop! St... don't stop! Don't stop!"
Posted by BlackBlade (Member # 8376) on :
The Pirates could be Chinese and their speech bubbles are written in Wade Giles.
I liked her set of rules, a bit more on the feminist side. I don't think rum was ever discussed.
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
quote:Originally posted by BlackBlade: I liked her [the Dread Pirate Cheng's] set of rules, a bit more on the feminist side.
quote: Even if there was fornication with a female captive at her supposed consent, the sailor was beheaded and the female cast overboard with a weight tied to her legs.
That's an odd version of feminist thought. Posted by John Van Pelt (Member # 5767) on :
quote:...and the female cast overboard with a weight tied to her legs.
Whereupon, naturally, she asked for ice cream.
Posted by ginette (Member # 852) on :
![[Smile]](smile.gif)
![[Eek!]](eek.gif)
![[ROFL]](graemlins/rofl.gif)