The asteroid in question is 400 meters long, large enough to cause a lot of damage. NASA article, Wikipedia article. If it hits, the impact will release energy equivalent to 2000 megatons of TNT. For comparison, the Tunguska event produced an equivalent of just 15 megatons of TNT.
The good news is that this asteroid stays near the earth's orbit all the time, and therefore if an impact is ultimately predicted (still considered unlikely) we may have many opportunities to deflect it in the next 24-25 years.
This asteroid is interesting because it's the most highly rated ever on the Torino scale, a 4. This means that collision is still unlikely, but that the object can potentially cause regional damage and merits close attention from astronomers to assess risk.
[ December 27, 2004, 11:23 PM: Message edited by: Shigosei ]
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
Thanks Shigosei.
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
<not saying a word>
<certainly not saying I TOLD YOU GUYS THIS WAS GONNA HAPPEN AND YOU WOULDN'T LISTEN!!!!!!>
<halo smilie>
Posted by quidscribis (Member # 5124) on :
Tatiana, I'm a little hard of hearing. Would you repeat that, please?
Posted by Vadon (Member # 4561) on :
Meh, 1 in 60 no worries. ^_^
Posted by Danzig avoiding landmarks (Member # 6792) on :
Not knowing a whole lot about this subject, and not being able to both quickly absorb the necessary knowledge while doing my job... is there any reason we could not nuke it, and/or explode a nuke that would knock it into a different path?
Posted by quidscribis (Member # 5124) on :
I don't think the question is so much "Can we?" but rather is "Should we?"
The implications are . . . vast. <insert philosophical pose Graemlin here>
Posted by Kama (Member # 3022) on :
In 25 years I will be 50. That's, like, old.
Posted by Primal Curve (Member # 3587) on :
Just one more reason to legalize marijuana.
Posted by plaid (Member # 2393) on :
2029?
Ehh, plenty of time. Mooselet will take care of it for us.
Posted by Trisha the Severe Hottie (Member # 6000) on :
I say we launch Ben Affleck and Bruce Willis immediately. Toward it, if anyone thinks that would be of additional help.
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
Charo and Pauly Shore.
I don't think that will help the misson much, but the quality of life on earth will rise while they are gone, that much is for sure....
Kwea
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
If anyone does anything about this, it'll probably be the British. Their government is the only one that has been taking the thread of asteroid collision with any seriousness.
If this thing is on target to hit us, I wonder at what point it will be too late to divert it.
Best case scenario--it looks like it's going to be a head on collision, and we get off our collective asses as a species and develop defensive measures to protect ourselves from it. Then it misses us by a hair's breadth.
Well, no best case scenario would be that we discover that it's an opportunity for peaceful first contact, and the asteroid is actually an artifact of some sort made by another race. That's on the unlikely side of things though, I'm thinking. Posted by raventh1 (Member # 3750) on :
In 24 years, we should have fixed our space impededness, especially if we determine it is more likely to happen...
Posted by J T Stryker (Member # 6300) on :
*runs around room screaming* We're all going to die!
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
[ December 25, 2004, 10:24 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by Joldo (Member # 6991) on :
Then they better hurry up on the Ender's Game movie.
Posted by sndrake (Member # 4941) on :
quote:Then they better hurry up on the Ender's Game movie.
I kinda hope that the 7th Harry Potter book is out by then.
Not to mention the ever-diminishing hopes that George RR Martin will finish "A Feast for Crows," let alone the series by then.
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
quote: If anyone does anything about this, it'll probably be the British. Their government is the only one that has been taking the thread of asteroid collision with any seriousness.
I would be really sad and ironic if after all the movies showing America saving the earth, it turns out to be the British Flag flying in the background as a defense strategy is launched into space.
*Thinks of Deep Impact, Independence Day, and Armageddon*
[ December 25, 2004, 09:56 PM: Message edited by: lem ]
Posted by WheatPuppet (Member # 5142) on :
Remember, Murphy's laws of probability apply. In tabletop gaming, rolling a 1 or 2 on a d6 is actually 50% for a negative effect and 13.5% for a positive effect.
I imagine that the probablity is more like 25% that it's going to hit.
*rolls a d4*
Damn. Best start digging the bunker now. Posted by Bean Counter (Member # 6001) on :
I look to Iran to supply the rocket and warhead, ouch! It looks like we should be pretty sure within a year, do they have anything like a probable impact sight? If it is in water it will be very bad, if it hits Yellow Stone wow Irony on Irony!
This is a classic example, by the time we get off our butts to build the space infrastructure no amount of money will get it done in time. Though with an asteroid this size I expect an ion drive H bomb or a stack of them would get it done. Of course we might cause a hell of a dangerous meteor shower.
BC
Posted by WheatPuppet (Member # 5142) on :
Hmmmm... we should attempt to capture it with explosives and rockets. What a perfect candidate for an orbital mining station, or as a replacement for the ISS.
Or we could blow it up. We should do it with the biggest laser we can find, Death Star style.
[edit]
quote: t to mention the ever-diminishing hopes that George RR Martin will finish "A Feast for Crows," let alone the series by then.
Storm of Swords is (C)2000. I just started Game of Thrones, and I'd be a very unhappy spirit in the afterlife if I didn't get to see the series to its conclusion before Armageddon.
[ December 25, 2004, 10:32 PM: Message edited by: WheatPuppet ]
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
I want to deflect it to impact the moon. If it's the nickle iron type asteroid then it will make great raw materials for mining. The lunar crust is mostly silica, so we need something better to build structures out of than sand or glass. Importing steel from earth would be prohibitively expensive. That's why I think it's a great idea, while nobody is there and there's no atmosphere to disrupt, to just aim it for the moon. Plus the fireworks would be awesome. Posted by twinky (Member # 693) on :
But then we'd wreck our tides.
Posted by FlyingCow (Member # 2150) on :
If the British do deflect it, we can then make a movie saying that the Americans actually did it, and future generations won't know any better.
Hey, it worked for U-571, no?
Posted by Anti-Chris (Member # 4452) on :
What we REALLY need to do is to put our chances at survival at the odds of one to a million. We all know that one in a million chances usually have a way of always happening.
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
Twinky, it wouldn't have any effect on the tides. The moon would not change orbit or anything. It would take something far far bigger to have any noticable effect on the celestial mechanics of the earh-moon system. The global devastation on earth if it hit earth would all have to do with the ocean, atmosphere, etc. All an asteroid would do if it hit the moon is make a nice hot new impact crater. (Since there's no atmosphere and nothing lives there.)
We would likely get a few more meteors than usual, is all. Plus a wonderful fireworks display, lots of fun for amateur astronomers, but probably not something most people would even notice.
Posted by quidscribis (Member # 5124) on :
quote:nothing lives there
Yeah, and that's exactly what they'd have you believe!
Have you been there? Have you seen for yourself? No?
Then you don't really know, do you? Huh? Huh?
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
Of course Tatiana, as we've talked about before, the moon is bound to be littered with good construction materials from previous impacts. All we have to do is get there and dig them up. Not that I think that diverting the thing into the moon is necessarily a bad idea.
Posted by Bean Counter (Member # 6001) on :
Whats wrong with glass as a building material? At 1/6th G it should work very well. As Neoman said we will find many nice impactors up there, plenty of Iron for phase three of my plan to conquerer space...
Hitting the moon with the asteroid might not be as easy or desirable as say, blasting it to grit. These asteroids can be strange in composition, conglomerate semi solids, stony and even solid all have their problems. Also the moon is a very small target, empty space is easier to hit.
It would be cool if it happened to nick the moon on the way by though, wang!
BC
Posted by aspectre (Member # 2222) on :
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth during the last 4 billion years is 38,000years.
Adjusting parameters in the AsteroidImpactCalculator such that energy before atmospheric entry equals 2000Megatons
Atmospheric Entry: The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 54kilomtres or 33.5miles. The projectile reaches the ground in a broken condition. The mass of projectile strikes the surface at velocity 16 km/s or 9.96 miles/s. Impact energy is 1780MegaTons or 7.47x10^18Joules The broken projectile fragments strike the ground in an ellipse of dimension 0.655km by 0.655km
Major Global Changes: The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass. The impact does not make a noticeable change in the Earth's rotation period or the tilt of its axis. The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.
Crater shape is normal in spite of atmospheric crushing; fragments are not significantly dispersed. Transient Crater Diameter: 4.91km = 3.05miles Transient Crater Depth: 1.74km = 1.08miles Final Crater Diameter: 6.07km = 3.77miles Final Crater Depth: 0.509km = 0.316miles The crater formed is a complex crater. The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 0.0665 cubic kilometres = 0.0159 cubic miles Roughly half the melt remains in the crater , where its average thickness is 3.51meters = 11.5feet
Effects at 100kilometres or 62miles distance
Time for maximum radiation: 0.244seconds after impact Visible fireball radius: 3.12km = 1.94miles The fireball appears 7.1 times larger than the sun Thermal Exposure: 2.66x104Joules/m2 Duration of Irradiation: 5.08seconds Radiant flux (relative to the sun): 5.24
The major seismic shaking will arrive at approximately 20seconds. Richter Scale Magnitude: 6.8 Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 100km: VI. Felt by all, many frightened. Some heavy furniture moved; a few instances of fallen plaster. Damage slight. VII. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken.
The ejecta will arrive approximately 144seconds after the impact. At 100kilometres/62miles the ejecta arrives in scattered fragments Average Ejecta Thickness: 5.19mm = 0.204inches Mean Fragment Diameter: 3.78cm = 1.49inches
The air blast will arrive at approximately 303seconds. Peak Overpressure: 11700Pa = 0.117bars = 1.66psi Max wind velocity: 26.3m/s = 58.7mph Sound Intensity: 81dB (Loud as heavy traffic) Glass windows will shatter
Effects at 50kilometres or 31miles Time for maximum radiation: 0.244seconds after impact Visible fireball radius: 3.71km = 2.31miles The fireball appears 16.9 times larger than the sun Thermal Exposure: 1.34x10^5Joules/m2 Duration of Irradiation: 5.08seconds Radiant flux (relative to the sun): 26.3
The major seismic shaking will arrive at approximately 10seconds. Richter Scale Magnitude: 6.8 Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 50km: VII. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken. VIII. Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable damage in ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse. Damage great in poorly built structures. Fall of chimneys, factory stacks, columns, monuments, walls. Heavy furniture overturned.
The ejecta will arrive approximately 101seconds after the impact. Average Ejecta Thickness: 4.15cm = 1.64inches Mean Fragment Diameter: 23.7cm = 9.33inches
The air blast will arrive at approximately 152seconds. Peak Overpressure: 38200Pa = 0.382bars = 5.43psi Max wind velocity: 78.2m/s = 175mph Sound Intensity: 92dB (May cause ear pain) Wood frame buildings will almost completely collapse. Glass windows will shatter. Up to 90 percent of trees blown down; remainder stripped of branches and leaves.
At 25kilometres or 15.5miles
Thermal Radiation: Time for maximum radiation: 0.244seconds after impact Visible fireball radius: 3.86km = 2.4miles The fireball appears 35.1 times larger than the sun Thermal Exposure: 5.61x10^5 Joules/m2 Duration of Irradiation: 5.08 seconds Radiant flux (relative to the sun): 111 humans directly exposed suffer first degree burns
The major seismic shaking will arrive at approximately 5seconds. Richter Scale Magnitude: 6.8 Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 25km: VII. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken. VIII. Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable damage in ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse. Damage great in poorly built structures. Fall of chimneys, factory stacks, columns, monuments, walls. Heavy furniture overturned.
The ejecta will arrive approximately 71.6seconds after the impact. Average Ejecta Thickness: 33.2cm = 13.1inches Mean Fragment Diameter: 1.49m = 4.88ft
The air blast will arrive at approximately 75.8seconds. Peak Overpressure: 150000Pa = 1.5bars = 21.3psi Max wind velocity: 234m/s = 522mph Sound Intensity: 104dB (May cause ear pain)
Multistory wall-bearing buildings will collapse. Wood frame buildings will almost completely collapse. Highway truss bridges will collapse. Glass windows will shatter. Up to 90 percent of trees blown down; remainder stripped of branches and leaves.
At 16.1kilometres/10miles
Time for maximum radiation: 0.244seconds after impact Visible fireball radius: 3.89km or 2.41miles The fireball appears 54.9 times larger than the sun Thermal Exposure: 1.37x 10^6Joules/m2 Duration of Irradiation: 5.08 seconds Radiant flux (relative to the sun): 269 Humans directly exposed suffer second degree burns Newspaper ignites Deciduous trees ignite Grass ignites
The major seismic shaking will arrive at approximately 3.22 seconds. Richter Scale Magnitude: 6.8 Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 16.1km: VII. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken. VIII. Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable damage in ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse. Damage great in poorly built structures. Fall of chimneys, factory stacks, columns, monuments, walls. Heavy furniture overturned.
The ejecta will arrive approximately 57.4seconds after the impact. Average Ejecta Thickness: 1.24m or 4.08ft Mean Fragment Diameter: 4.78m or 15.7ft
The air blast will arrive at approximately 48.8seconds. Peak Overpressure: 380000Pa = 3.8bars = 54psi Max wind velocity: 434m/s = 972mph Sound Intensity: 112dB (Will cause ear pain)
Multistory wall-bearing buildings will collapse. Wood frame buildings will almost completely collapse. Multistory steel-framed office-type buildings will suffer extreme frame distortion, incipient collapse. Highway truss bridges will collapse. Highway girder bridges will collapse. Glass windows will shatter. Cars and trucks will be overturned and displaced, requiring major repairs. Up to 90 percent of trees blown down; remainder stripped of branches and leaves.
[ December 26, 2004, 10:05 PM: Message edited by: aspectre ]
Posted by WheatPuppet (Member # 5142) on :
quote: phase three of my plan to conquerer space...
That sounds suspiciously like my attempts to end all world problems, which can be summarized into three steps:
Step One: Build a tower on the moon. Step Two: Step Three: World Peace.
Posted by quidscribis (Member # 5124) on :
Posted by IanO (Member # 186) on :
ahh, you have underpants gnomes in your ancestry?
Posted by Bean Counter (Member # 6001) on :
What does that refer too, it sounds so familiar...
BC
Posted by James Tiberius Kirk (Member # 2832) on :
Now I'm hearing 1 in 37. Still, nothing to be really worried about... 1 in 37 is pretty small.
Eh. Who am I kidding.
--j_k
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
Where are you hearing 1 in 37?
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
The latest on Space.com says 1 in 40.
Posted by Trisha the Severe Hottie (Member # 6000) on :
But what if we get it to crash into the moon and the moon destabilizes, crashing into the earth? Is there any chance of that? Or am I really confused about the relative sizes of these things?
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
Yeah, much bigger things have slammed into the moon in its history, I'd be willing to bet. This think is only 400 meters across. Nothing to sneeze at, but it isn't a dinosaur killer or anything.
Posted by James Tiberius Kirk (Member # 2832) on :
I saw it at NASA's page, which now says 1 in 56,000.
At first I was a little confused, since other articles had said that it would be Feb. at the earliest before we got more data that would do much to help us pinpoint the thing's trajectory, but apparently they went back through old data, and now that they knew what to look for they were able to glean information about the asteroid from that.
Posted by Tatiana (Member # 6776) on :
Whew! Glad this one is not going to hit. We don't need to get complacent, though. My worst fear is that we will discover a big one incoming with a few years or less lead time. There is no way we could be ready to deflect it by then. That's why we have to go ahead and start working on the problem now. We don't know how much warning we will have. One very near miss (as someone mentioned earlier) was only discovered when it was outbound.
Posted by Shigosei (Member # 3831) on :
Yeah, I'm glad they determined this asteroid isn't going to hit. Perhaps one day we'll take these threats seriously and develop some countermeasures.
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
You know, in a way it would have been better for the species if this one had been on a collision course. It's big enough to have gotten our attention, but not so large that it would have driven us extinct had we been unable to deflect it in time. I'm not sure than anything short of billions of tons of space debris hurtling directly toward us will goad us into the necessary action, frankly.
Posted by raventh1 (Member # 3750) on :
See! It didn't even take us 24 years!
Posted by Shigosei (Member # 3831) on :
Yes, but I would be concerned about a panic reaction if it were announced that the asteroid was going to hit. What would be good is a period of uncertainty for a greater length of time, finally resolving as a miss. That way we get the kick in the pants we need without the certainty there will be a strike.
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
But the thing is, if it were looking more and more likely that the thing would stike for a long enough period of time for us to mobilize against the threat, I think that there would likely be panic anyway.
That said, you do have a point. I would like for a certain strike to not be necessary to spur us to action.
Posted by mr_porteiro_head (Member # 4644) on :
Noemon -- have you read Rendevous with Rama? Humanity gets their act together because of a strike that destroys most of Italy i nthat book.
Posted by Noemon (Member # 1115) on :
You know, I haven't. I've only read a little bit of Clark, honestly.
Posted by James Tiberius Kirk (Member # 2832) on :
There's this other book I read, humanity pulls together because some aliens are about to attack. Too bad the alliance collapses as soon as the threat is destroyed.
--j_k
[ December 28, 2004, 10:32 AM: Message edited by: James Tiberius Kirk ]
![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
![[Smile]](smile.gif)
![[Angst]](graemlins/angst.gif)
![[ROFL]](graemlins/rofl.gif)
![[Monkeys]](graemlins/monkeys.gif)
![[Wink]](wink.gif)