Hatrack River Forum: Economic 'Armageddon' predicted

This is topic Economic 'Armageddon' predicted in forum Books, Films, Food and Culture at Hatrack River Forum.

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Posted by Storm Saxon (Member # 3101) on :

http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356

quote:

Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being bearish.

But you should hear what he's saying in private.

Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown last week, including a group at Fidelity.

His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic ``armageddon.''

I guess a link might be good.

[ November 24, 2004, 01:16 AM: Message edited by: Storm Saxon ]

Posted by The Silverblue Sun (Member # 1630) on :

armageddon means

"The Uncovering"

Jesus Rules!
God Rules!
The Holy Spirit Rules!

Love is Strong.

Long live Love!

Posted by Storm Saxon (Member # 3101) on :

Love ain't nothin' but sex misspelled. [Razz]

Posted by The Silverblue Sun (Member # 1630) on :

Love can both create a blueprint and fertlize it,
sex can only fertilize a pre-existing blueprint, sex cannot write blue prints, where Love is good at all things.

sex can be great
but
Love is always better.

Posted by Storm Saxon (Member # 3101) on :

Yes. Well....

O.K. You convinced me.

Marry me, you big, teutonic lug! Marry me and make me the happiest man on Hatrack!

Posted by The Silverblue Sun (Member # 1630) on :

I am taking 10 years off to decide who to marry,
so Storm, as I take applications and proposals, I probably won't be making a choice for about 7 more years.

Good luck!

Superman Vs. Arrmmaggedddon.

Go Superman!

Posted by Storm Saxon (Member # 3101) on :

I always loved Superman's plea to mother earth in Miller's Dark Knight series when he was falling to earth after catching that atomic bomb.

Good luck, Thor. [Smile]

Posted by Lalo (Member # 3772) on :

I don't know, I don't think I entirely disagree with Snow. A falling dollar's going to screw us over as consumers, but (ideally) it should help us narrow the trade deficit -- lessening the dollar's value will encourage foreign investment in the US, and should help produce jobs. It's definitely a good sign the American consumer should start hibernating, but both the trade and the fiscal deficit/debts are insane enough that we should be nurturing what this country can produce, not what it can consume.

Of course, that's just an ideal. The reality is probably that prices will hike for consumers and production will continue being sent overseas. What fool would invest in the US? Tech jobs are impossibly cheaper to send to India, manufacturing to China, textiles to Latin America, cars to Japan, farming (sans subsidies) anywhere else. What does the US have going for it but, what, R&D in medicine, weapons systems, what else? And there's no guarantee even those jobs will stay in this country, and no particular reason why they would once Asia and India step up on public education. Investors need a reason to invest in this country, and I can't particularly think of one to suggest to them.

A falling dollar will at least make us cheaper overseas, even if it screws us over at home. Narrowing the trade deficit's a good place to start, and may lead to American growth in the international market, which should help us out with job production. I don't see it happening, but maybe the US can develop some field of production that can't be sent overseas. And maybe the all-Republican government will stop being so fiscally insane and try to work down the debt. And maybe I'll grow wings.

Crap, if I don't take out a loan now, this is gonna burn me as a college student...

Posted by Storm Saxon (Member # 3101) on :

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=3445928

Posted by Jhai (Member # 5633) on :

I'm currently writing a ten page paper on this very topic for an economics class, have already done a PowerPoint on it in for the same class--and we just studied it in International Finance.

While Snow seems to be either a bit pessimistic or something of an alarmist, he isn’t that that far off from describing what is very likely to occur.
In fact, I subtitled my PowerPoint “The Economic Armageddon Just Around the Corner;” mainly to catch people's eyes, but partly because that is what we could be facing.

Here’s an excellent site for the topic (and just about any other macroeconomic subject); just click on “Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable?” which is under the “Hot Topics” section on the far right.
The best paper on the subject that you could possibly read is the one titled “The US as a Net Debtor: The Sustainability of the US External Imbalances;” unless you’re really into the topic (or in an International Finance class like me [Smile]

) just read the executive summary—the paper itself is 60 pages.

I’ll post more on this topic later in the day; it’s a very important problem that the vast majority of Americans seem to know very little about, unless they follow economic news—there’ve been warnings about this in all the journals and papers recently.

I wouldn’t want to be in Greenspan’s place for the next few years. Or, frankly, be the head of state, because when this one hits, it’s going to be really nasty. [Frown]

edited for formatting error

[ December 08, 2004, 09:42 AM: Message edited by: Jhai ]

Posted by rubble (Member # 6454) on :

Thanks for the links Jhai

Posted by Choobak (Member # 7083) on :

Good luck, "W" ! You have to set right Economy.

I hope USA will react. In Europ, We are affraid of your deficit. And the US Dollar tumble...
I hope USA have chosen the good president for getting up.

[ December 08, 2004, 08:16 AM: Message edited by: Choobak ]

Posted by TomDavidson (Member # 124) on :

"Or, frankly, be the head of state, because when this one hits, it’s going to be really nasty."

Hm. You know, I think Bush's macroeconomic policy has been to deliberately weaken the dollar. Do you disagree?

Posted by Choobak (Member # 7083) on :

I agree. But I'm not sur he has correctly previewed all effects.

[ December 08, 2004, 09:50 AM: Message edited by: Choobak ]

Posted by JohnKeats (Member # 1261) on :

quote:
"What people need to hear loud and clear is that we're running out of energy in America."

-President Bush, May 2001.

Money is, first and foremost, a token for energy. Money = the capacity to accomplish work. The US Dollar is nothing more than a paper symbol of an energy asset. Only, you can't just print energy, can you?

quote:
You know, I think Bush's macroeconomic policy has been to deliberately weaken the dollar. Do you disagree?

From The Economist:

"Many American policymakers talk as though it is better to rely entirely on a falling dollar to solve, somehow, all their problems. Conceivably, it could happen—but such a one-sided remedy would most likely be far more painful than they imagine. America's challenge is not just to reduce its current-account deficit to a level which foreigners are happy to finance by buying more dollar assets, but also to persuade existing foreign creditors to hang on to their vast stock of dollar assets, estimated at almost $11 trillion. A fall in the dollar sufficient to close the current-account deficit might destroy its safe-haven status. If the dollar falls by another 30%, as some predict, it would amount to the biggest default in history: not a conventional default on debt service, but default by stealth, wiping trillions off the value of foreigners' dollar assets."

[ December 08, 2004, 10:04 AM: Message edited by: JohnKeats ]

Posted by Choobak (Member # 7083) on :

That's a part of what i want to write about "previewed all effects". And If USA fall, Europ fall. We are conscious of that.

[ December 08, 2004, 10:12 AM: Message edited by: Choobak ]

Posted by JohnKeats (Member # 1261) on :

quote:
And If USA fall, Europ fall. We are conscious of that.

Enter the PetroEuro.

Posted by Storm Saxon (Member # 3101) on :

Thanks for the great analysis, Jhai.

Posted by jeniwren (Member # 2002) on :

Stormy (referring to your exchange with Thor above), sometimes you make me glad I got out of bed this morning. [Smile]

Posted by Icarus (Member # 3162) on :

What were you doing in bed with Stormy? [Confused]

Posted by Storm Saxon (Member # 3101) on :

Thanks, Jeni.

And none o' yer bee's wax, Mr. Evil! [Mad]

Posted by Choobak (Member # 7083) on :

Thanks for the link, JohnKeats. It's a reality... But I remember the Nash' theory about Economics. "A personnal profit doesn't always improve the global profit."

To meditate...

Your nickname is for the poet or for The Dan Simmons'Book Hyperion ?

[ December 08, 2004, 12:09 PM: Message edited by: Choobak ]

Posted by JohnKeats (Member # 1261) on :

Yes. [Cool]

[ December 08, 2004, 01:09 PM: Message edited by: JohnKeats ]

Posted by Storm Saxon (Member # 3101) on :

There is a thread on this subject on Ornery, as well. (I posted my last link without knowing DR had done it over there, too.)

[ December 08, 2004, 01:09 PM: Message edited by: Storm Saxon ]