This is topic Squicky's (and anyone one else who wants to take a stab at it) election prediction in forum Books, Films, Food and Culture at Hatrack River Forum.
As the weather in Philly and in the major cities in Ohio is unseasonably pleasant, I think John Kerry is going to take PA and Ohio. I don't know what the heck is going to happen in Florida. You gator rasslin' citrus farmers are a mystery to me, but I think those two states are enough to push the electoral college vote to John Kerry. I could be wrong, but my prediction is that he's going to take it, buoyed by the record setting voter turnout of people who weren't considered in the polls of "likely voters".
edit: Anyone else want to get their election predictions in under the wire? The best would be including what factors led you to make your decision.
[ November 02, 2004, 03:26 PM: Message edited by: MrSquicky ]
Posted by CStroman (Member # 6872) on :
I think Kerry will win, although I didn't vote for him.
Posted by saxon75 (Member # 4589) on :
What Chad said, except replace "Kerry" with "Bush."
Posted by Bob the Lawyer (Member # 3278) on :
We have a bit of a poll going in my house.
1) Who wins the election 2) Who wins the election after the first recount 3) Who wins the election after all the lawsuit jimmer jammer 4) The date when all recounting and/or lawsuiting is over.
Posted by Carrie (Member # 394) on :
I predict no one will have voted for me.
Posted by dkw (Member # 3264) on :
I voted for Carrie.
No, wait, that's not right . . . Kerry, yeah that's it.
Posted by Morbo (Member # 5309) on :
That's good news about the weather. I wonder how much of a factor it will be nationally?
quote: my prediction is that he's going to take it, buoyed by the record setting voter turnout of people who weren't considered in the polls of "likely voters".
I agree. I think the "likely voter" modeling this year is highly suspect, and I think the 18-30 age group is underrepresented in the polls, therefore Kerry will win more votes than polls predicted and will WIN! Posted by mr_porteiro_head (Member # 4644) on :
I'm not going to even bother predicting until after the swimsuit competition.
Posted by blacwolve (Member # 2972) on :
I'm refusing to contemplate the possiblity that Bush will win, which is unrealistic but highly comforting.
Posted by Dan_raven (Member # 3383) on :
My election prediction.
I believe that the majority of the voting will be done today, and that the election will be officially held on November 2nd, 2004.
How'd I do?
Posted by newfoundlogic (Member # 3907) on :
I'm predicting a President Edwards administration for two years followed by more two years of Bush after which Bush will attempt to run for a third time on the basis that he served less than half of his second term. Seriously, MSN's final prediction was 269-269.
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
I am cautiously expecting that Kerry supporters will be called upon to be gracious, coalition-building winners. No waving of the heinie in anyone else's face, no spiking the ball. Just "okay, where do we start first, how can we do this together."
But I have to admit, my hat's off ( ) to The Daily Show's Election Night 2004: Prelude to a Recount.
quote:Live from The Daily Show's news centre in New York, host Jon Stewart will helm The Daily Show's coverage of what promises to be another election horror show.
but also
[ November 02, 2004, 04:40 PM: Message edited by: Sara Sasse ]
Posted by sndrake (Member # 4941) on :
quote:I'm not going to even bother predicting until after the swimsuit competition.
(Just when I thought nothing could make the political campaigns any uglier, MPH shows me just how wrong I can be.)
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
I'm predicting Bush will take both Florida and Ohio and be re-elected.
Posted by TomDavidson (Member # 124) on :
That's only if there IS a God, Belle. j/k
Posted by Sara Sasse (Member # 6804) on :
Soon to start Hour 5 of nausea.
Good grief, for this I'd at least want a baby.
*eyes the PeptoBismol bottle, weighs the risk of bismuth heavy metal poisoning
Posted by mr_porteiro_head (Member # 4644) on :
quote: Just when I thought nothing could make the political campaigns any uglier, MPH shows me just how wrong I can be.
We aims to please.
Posted by Synesthesia (Member # 4774) on :
Heavy metal poisoning? Posted by Glaphyra the Righteous (Member # 6995) on :
Too much PeptoBismol. It has bismuth as an active ingredient, which is why you should never never ever give it to infants.
I'll be okay. Glaphyra has granted me some leniency from the nausea. Takes my mind off the scary parts.
Posted by imogen (Member # 5485) on :
Glaphyra is Sara?!
(Way too early for me. Tea. Need tea.)
Posted by Joldo (Member # 6991) on :
Huh, it didn't happen in Ohio. Well, just like I would have made you people carry me around on your shoulders and hailed me as a great prognosticator if the election had turned out the way that I said it would, I now offer myself up to be tarred and feathered and then run out of town on a rail. It's only fair.
Posted by CStroman (Member # 6872) on :
Dang, I was wrong.
Posted by rivka (Member # 4859) on :
Pfft. Tarring and feathering is so last millennium.
*ZAPs* Squicky
Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :
I was a little low on Bush's majority and quite abit high on his electoral majority.
Posted by Kwea (Member # 2199) on :
I knew it would be close, but I was afraid that Bush would win.
Oh well, on to the rest of our lives...or what is left of them, for some people...
Kwea
[ November 03, 2004, 10:45 AM: Message edited by: Kwea ]
Posted by Belle (Member # 2314) on :
quote:I'm predicting Bush will take both Florida and Ohio and be re-elected.
![[Cool]](cool.gif)
![[Hat]](graemlins/hat.gif)
) to The Daily Show's Election Night 2004: Prelude to a Recount.![[ROFL]](graemlins/rofl.gif)
but also ![[Cry]](graemlins/cry.gif)
![[Angst]](graemlins/angst.gif)
![[Wink]](wink.gif)
j/k
![[Confused]](confused.gif)
![[Eek!]](eek.gif)
![[Smile]](smile.gif)