Hatrack River Forum: A fool-proof investment plan

This is topic A fool-proof investment plan in forum Books, Films, Food and Culture at Hatrack River Forum.

To visit this topic, use this URL:
http://www.hatrack.com/ubb/main/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get_topic;f=2;t=023245

Posted by beatnix19 (Member # 5836) on :

Nothing could possible go wrong with this idea. [Roll Eyes]

Big plans in Vegas

Posted by ssywak (Member # 807) on :

Yes: nothing.

Or everything.

dum...da dum! (insert appropriate Homestarrunner noise here)

Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :

But it's not even everything. Sure, $276,000 is a lot of money. But it's not enough to retire on.

I would love to watch this live. Does anyone know how many green numbers there are on a Vegas Roulette wheel? He might do better elsewhere.

Dagonee

Posted by mr_porteiro_head (Member # 4644) on :

Gambling is a directed tax for people who are bad at math.

Posted by T. Analog Kid (Member # 381) on :

From memory so I'm not positive but I think:
2 green numbers: 0 and 00.

Your odds of winning a single number are 1 in 38, payoff is 35 to 1.

Odds of winning betting on red or black are 9 in 19, payoff is 2 to 1.

Posted by T. Analog Kid (Member # 381) on :

an online strategy guide to roulette

Posted by Dan_raven (Member # 3383) on :

Actually, this is the best way to gamble, one big bet.

Luck may be with you on one bet. Statistics don't play that big a part on one bet. However, statistics insure you loose if you play a lot of little bets.

Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :

Actually, the most "successful" is a series of small bets with increasing bets on successive wins. Although ultimately the house percentage is the same, and in the long run you will lose money, this strategy tends to allow longer runs before an initial stake is lost and more runs of an arbitrary length where the person ends up ahead than most other strategies.

The underlying theory relies on the fact that streaks happen. It minimizes the damage of bad streaks and maximizes the gain from good states.

However, to emphasize, it DOES NOT change the ultimate house percentage. It simply helps you find a good place to stop.

Dagonee

Posted by mr_porteiro_head (Member # 4644) on :

Porteiro's on-line guide to playing roulette:

code:

 
----------------           ----------
|Do you mind   |---Yes---->|Go ahead|
|losing money? |           |and play|
----------------           ----------
       |
       |
       No
       |
       |
       \/
------------
| don't    |
| gamble   |
------------

edit: wording

[ April 08, 2004, 12:12 PM: Message edited by: mr_porteiro_head ]

Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :

The problem with such binary conclusions is that some people are ahead lifetime gambling in casinos (including yours truly). So it's clearly not the case that all people will lose money all the time.

Casino gambling at low-stakes tables can be a great entertainment bargain - free drinks, very social, you meet lots of people. If you're smart, you can extend your play time (which is always my goal - winning is secondary because this is recreation for me when I do it).

Dagonee

Posted by fugu13 (Member # 2859) on :

The Las Vegas houses have relatively small margins on a lot of their games -- they really can make up for it on volume, because so many people are playing.

With small margins for the house, a remarkably large number of people are going to do well.

Now, always be ready to lose any money you bring, or have a set amount you're willing to lose of your initial and never make a bet when you'd go over your limit. But don't be surprised when if you win, or assume its any great skill on your part.

Posted by mr_porteiro_head (Member # 4644) on :

Well, from both of your comments, I guess I could change it to "Do you mind losing money?"

Neither one of you seem to mind losing money when you gamble.

Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :

Exactly, fugu. A corollary to that is don't place a bet if you don't have enough to follow up if events warrant. For example, don't place a blackjack bet if you don't have enough to split and double down both splits. Don't place a pass-line bet if you don't have enough to put down full odds.

Otherwise you give away a lot of percentage to the house on that bet.

Dagonee

Posted by Dagonee (Member # 5818) on :

MPH, that's true. Gambling as a form of entertainment is fine - as a source of income it's very very risky.

Posted by fugu13 (Member # 2859) on :

The one exception is blackjack. A single person can make the odds in his favor on blackjack, though that requires obvious card counting which will make one unwelcome in most casinos (though it is not cheating).

A team of players can do the same basic card counting trick (though in a much more complicated manner) in a way that's much less obvious. However, casinos are now pretty good at detecting and ejecting people doing it that way, too.

Posted by saxon75 (Member # 4589) on :

One of the math profs at my school gave a card counting seminar once. He said that the best way to do it is to have a team and to go right around when the pit bosses are changing shifts.

He's not allowed in any casino in Vegas anymore. (According to him, blackjack is uninteresting, especially compared to backgammon.)

Posted by Xavier (Member # 405) on :

I am actually up somewhere around a thousand dollars against casinos. Even when factoring in my early trips when I had no idea when to hit or when to double or split and the like.

The key was playing only blackjack.

And also bringing a lot of money. At least twenty times the amount it costs for the minumum bet.

See, I go with the assumption that I am going to be fluxuating up and down a lot. Out of about 7 times playing (averaging about 6-8 hours of blackjack each), this has always been the case. My friend Tom went with me last time, and only brought like 50. He lost a few hands and couldn't play anymore. I lost the same amount of hands, but had enough to survive the bad streak and rode it out to win big in the end (something like 400). In order to walk away with money, you need to survive several bad streaks of luck over the course of the night. If you follow the rules of when to do what, it is rare to be down twenty hands (the most I have been down in about 40 hours of blackjack is like 14).

Oh and that night I tipped somewhere around 200 dollars to various dealers and waitresses. Tipping helps your karma! Seriously though, tipping hurts your odds statistically of walking away with money, but I have always done good when I tipped a lot.

There was this one time where i was the only person playing a hand. I was up somewhere around 300 and so was playing with 25 dollar bets. The dealer had a bust card showing, and I was dealt two 8's. Well being a knowledgable BJ player, I split the 8's. I was dealt another 8. on both of them. So I split those two pairs of 8's too. I ended up getting a 15, a 16, a 14, and an 11. So of course I doubled down on the 11, and got a two. So the only way possible for me to not lose every dime was if she busted. There was 125 dollars riding on that hand. The dealer flipped her hidden card and it was a 5. Giving her the best possible combination. But she ended up busting anyway [Big Grin]

. I ended up tipping her like 15 bucks, and the waitress walking by another 5. [Smile]

But normally I play for a long time, and leave during an upswing. What normally happens is that I will play for several hours, and then at some point I will be up more than I had been during the rest of the night. I ride my luck for a little bit until I lose a handful of hands in a row, then I leave. A good strategy I found was saving your greens (25 dollar chips) and then leaving when you run out of reds (five dollar ones).

Another tip is that you NEED to have enough money that doubling down or splitting aren't so scary. These two rules are what make the odds against you less than 0.5%.

Last time I went, afterwards I bought a 400 dollar digital camera with my free money [Smile]

.

So yeah, you don't always lose. I only bring about 200 dollars with me when I go (20 times the 10 dollar min), and I also leave my wallet in my car (the parking spot is usually a big hike, so no temptation to go back and get it). So the only way I could be losing to a casino is if I go five times and lost them all. Seems like I would stop after the first time losing that much [Smile]

.

[ April 08, 2004, 01:05 PM: Message edited by: Xavier ]